University of Hartford Forecasting and Predictive Analytics Worksheet

Description

16 AmerPlas, Inc., produces 16-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers and soft drinks. It has been observed that sales of the cups match closely the seasonal pattern associated with beer production but that, unlike beer production, there has been a positive trend over time. The sales data, by month, for 2013 through 2016 are as follows (Data provided in excel)

A.Use these data to estimate a linear time trend as follows:

SALES = a + b(T)

SALES= ______+/- ________(T)

(Circle + or − as appropriate) Do your regression results support the notion that there has been a positive time trend in the SALES data? Explain

B. use your equation to forecast SALES for the 12 months of 2017:

C. Actual sales for 2017 are:

Period	Actual Sales
2017 M01	2318
M02	2367
M03	2523
M04	2577
M05	2646
M06	2674
M07	2697
M08	2702
M09	2613
M10	2626
M11	2570
M12	2590

On the basis of your results in part (b) in comparison with these actual sales, how well do you think your model works? What is the MAPE for 2017?

Please show how you got answers in excel with steps and use forecastx

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