University of Hartford Forecasting and Predictive Analytics Worksheet

16 AmerPlas, Inc., produces 16-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers and soft drinks. It has been observed that sales of the cups match closely the seasonal pattern associated with beer production but that, unlike beer production, there has been a positive trend over time. The sales data, by month, for 2013 through 2016 are as follows (Data provided in excel)

A.Use these data to estimate a linear time trend as follows:

SALES = a + b(T)

SALES= ______+/- ________(T)

(Circle + or − as appropriate) Do your regression results support the notion that there has been a positive time trend in the SALES data? Explain

B. use your equation to forecast SALES for the 12 months of 2017:

C. Actual sales for 2017 are:

On the basis of your results in part (b) in comparison with these actual sales, how well do you think your model works? What is the MAPE for 2017?

Please show how you got answers in excel with steps and use forecastx