INSS 2403 University of Texas at Austin Probability in Intelligence Analysis

Question Description

I’m working on a statistics multi-part question and need an explanation and answer to help me learn.

Read the following article about the use of probability in intelligence analysis:

Friedman, J. A., & Zeckhouser, R. (2015). Handling and mishandling estimative probability: Likelihood, confidence, and the search for Bin Laden. Intelligence and National Security, 30, 77-99. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2014.885202

Answer the following questions:

#1: summarize the arguments the author made about the best way to communicate estimative probability to decision-makers?

#2: What is subjective probability and how is it different from “frequentist” probability, which is what you learned about in this module?

#3: What is a point estimate of probability and why do analysts prefer to give a range of probabilities instead?

#4: What challenges are involved with making decisions based upon estimative probability stated in words (e.g., “very likely), rather than numbers (e.g., 85%)?

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