Florida National University Speculators Currency Futures or Options Discussion

Description

POINT: Speculators should use currency futures because they can avoid a substantial premium. To the extent that they are willing to speculate, they must have confidence in their expectations. If they have sufficient confidence in their expectations, they should bet on their expectations without having to pay a large premium to cover themselves if they are wrong. If they do not have confidence in their expectations, they should not speculate at all.

COUNTER-POINT: Speculators should use currency options to fit the degree of their confidence. For example, if they are very confident that a currency will appreciate substantially, but want to limit their investment, they can buy deep out-of-the-money options. These options, which have a high exercise price but a low premium, require a relatively small investment. Alternatively, speculators can buy options that have a lower exercise price (higher premium), which will likely generate a greater return if the currency appreciates. Speculation involves risk. Speculators must recognize that their expectations may be wrong. While options require a premium, the premium is worthwhile as a means to limit the potential downside risk. Options enable speculators to select the degree of downside risk that they are willing to tolerate.

WHO IS CORRECT? Use the Internet to learn more about this issue. Which argument do you support? Offer your own opinion on this issue.

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